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Costa, L, Barbosa, M B A, Baldam, R d L and Coelho, T d P (2019) Challenges of Process Modeling in Architecture and Engineering to Execute Projects and Public Works. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Han, Y, Feng, Z, Zhang, J, Jin, R and Aboagye-Nimo, E (2019) Employees’ Safety Perceptions of Site Hazard and Accident Scenes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Jeelani, I, Albert, A, Han, K and Azevedo, R (2019) Are Visual Search Patterns Predictive of Hazard Recognition Performance? Empirical Investigation Using Eye-Tracking Technology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Lee, C, Won, J and Lee, E (2019) Method for Predicting Raw Material Prices for Product Production over Long Periods. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Lee, J and Hyun, H (2019) Multiple Modular Building Construction Project Scheduling Using Genetic Algorithms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Nasirian, A, Arashpour, M and Abbasi, B (2019) Critical Literature Review of Labor Multiskilling in Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Ryu, J, Seo, J, Jebelli, H and Lee, S (2019) Automated Action Recognition Using an Accelerometer-Embedded Wristband-Type Activity Tracker. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Tang, W, Cui, Q, Zhang, F and Chen, Y (2019) Urban Rail-Transit Project Investment Benefits Based on Compound Real Options and Trapezoid Fuzzy Numbers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Urban rail transit; Investment benefits; Compound real options; Trapezoid fuzzy numbers;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001560
- Abstract:
A long investment cycle and complex environmental changes bring lots of uncertainty to urban rail-transit (URT) project investment, and lead to many investment risks. However, investors’ aggressive flexible management strategies may effectively avoid the risks and create greater investment benefits. In order to scientifically evaluate the potential benefits brought from flexible management, this paper systematically builds an analysis framework for investment benefits evaluation based on real options theory. Previous studies have still been confined to the single option benefits measurement and the evaluation methods assume that expected investment cost and income were constant. To fill the gap, this study takes account of the interaction effects of several real options and uses fuzzy theory to relax some parameter hypotheses, then establishes a multiple-fold compound real-option benefits evaluation model based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Another contribution of this paper is that it provides a clear modeling approach for estimating the parameters of investment benefits volatility and discount rate by using historical open data in the financial market. A case study of the Changsha Metro Line 2 in China is discussed, and the empirical analysis shows that option benefits account for a large proportion of the entire investment returns. Moreover, the compound option benefits are about five times of the single option, so the implied option benefits, especially the compound option benefits, should not be ignored in the measurement of the URT project, and investors should be encouraged to actively implement flexible management strategies. Finally, this paper makes a sensitivity analysis of compound option benefits, and provides a basis for effectively reducing the government’s subsidies and achieving profitability of URT project investment.
Techera, U, Hallowell, M and Littlejohn, R (2019) Worker Fatigue in Electrical-Transmission and Distribution-Line Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Zhang, M, Cao, T and Zhao, X (2019) Using Smartphones to Detect and Identify Construction Workers’ Near-Miss Falls Based on ANN. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Zhang, S, Liu, X, Gao, Y and Ma, P (2019) Effect of Level of Owner-Provided Design on Contractor’s Design Quality in DB/EPC Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).
Zhang, Y, Luo, H, Skitmore, M, Li, Q and Zhong, B (2019) Optimal Camera Placement for Monitoring Safety in Metro Station Construction Work. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(01).